1. Strategic Premise & Constraints
The "Patch" Limitation
The US West Coast is currently a "patch" (補洞) rather than a total replacement for Middle Eastern supply due to limited existing export infrastructure[cite: 1, 15]. The strategy relies on a 3–12 month crisis window.
Reserves Buffer
- • Japan: 200+ days of crude reserves.
- • Taiwan: ~100 days of crude reserves.
- • Goal: Bridge the gap using a "Wartime Transit Package".
2. US Policy & Infrastructure
G2G Framework
Sign Government-to-Government agreements to prioritize export quotas for Japan and Taiwan.
Regulatory Ease
Temporarily waive or exempt Jones Act restrictions to allow foreign tankers to shuttle between US ports[cite: 2].
Port Upgrades
Priority funding for deep-water berths in California, Washington, and Alaska to support STS (Ship-to-Ship) loading[cite: 2].
3. Route Efficiency Analysis
| Route | Path | Distance (NM) | Time (Days) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middle East → Tokyo | Malacca Strait | ~6,600 [cite: 11] | 19–20 Days [cite: 11] |
| US West Coast → Tokyo | Great Circle | ~4,800 [cite: 12] | 14–15 Days [cite: 12] |
| US Gulf → Japan | Panama Canal | ~9,500 [cite: 12] | 27–32 Days [cite: 12] |
🇯🇵 Japan Strategy
Short-Term (0–6 Mo)
Activate strategic reserves (currently 90% dependent on Mideast oil) and spike US/Australia spot buys[cite: 3, 4].
Mid-Term (6–24 Mo)
Lock in Canada West Coast LNG capacity to reduce transit times by 50% compared to the Gulf[cite: 2, 4].
🇹🇼 Taiwan Strategy
Crisis Response (0–3 Mo)
Immediately raise LNG inventory (currently only 11 days) to 20–30 days through "swap" agreements with Japan/Korea[cite: 4].
Structural Shift (3–24 Mo)
Target a 50%+ non-Middle East oil ratio and re-engineer refineries for US shale and Brazilian crude.